Social Media In 25 Or 30 Years?

Kiev, Ukraine – October 17, 2012 – A logotype collection of well-known social media brand’s printed on paper. Include Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Google Plus, Instagram, Vimeo, Flickr, Myspace, Tumblr, Livejournal, Foursquare and more other logos.

This topic from Shackman for this week’s 2 on 1 weekly Friday post is a googly if you are a cricket nut or a curve ball if you are a baseball nut.

For the past four days, I have been scratching my head to think through this topic to make a sensible post and I must confess that I am no nearer to coming to that goal now than I was when I started.

I am not an Oracle. I am not an astrologer. Nor am I one of those pundits of Management who keep coming up with predictions about everything from the volume or value of a product’s sales figures for the next few years or who predict how the stock market will behave in the same period. I am just an ordinary old geezer content to use whatever social media keeps me informed about my contacts without worrying too much about its future.

Having been a professional manager however, and also one who strongly believes in the theory of cycles, I can hazard a guess about most of these sites’ future. Almost all of them are near the top of the Sigmoid curve now, and unless they keep reinventing themselves just before they reach full maturity, there is bound to be major shakeouts with the bigger sites creating additional features incorporating features of the competition that will allow them to grow while hastening the decline of the less innovative ones.

I expect that in the next 25 or 30 years, most of the sites would have disappeared leaving just a handful to oblige increasingly discerning clientele. Exist however, they will, though the equipment that will be used will be far different from those used now like the computer, smart phone, or tablets. Most likely, they will be somethings like the already available Smart Watches, and in concept things like the Cicret Bracelet. They may be even completely different to such gadgets. That is the exciting and also disturbing aspect of technology today.

Please do go over to Shackman’s blog to see what he has to say about this very intriguing future.

15 thoughts on “Social Media In 25 Or 30 Years?”

  1. As I recall, Kaitlin talked to millennials about their use of social media. Apparently they don’t use Facebook or Twitter but like Instagram.

    No sense making a prediction since we most likely won’t be around to see what happens.

  2. LOL!
    well… I’m rather liking being old geezerette! (I’m using new words today.)
    can ladies be geezers? I don’t know.
    but I’m thinking I’m enjoying the show. and I don’t feel I have to figure it all out anymore. and before I retired I was into ‘their’ mode of having to figure it all out.
    there is such a relief and enjoyment of life when you’re out of that mode!
    let the games begin! I will happily cheer on the sidelines and see how it all washes out. I love the way you think old geezer! SH

      The female version of “Geezer”

      “Hey geezers and geezelles!”

      That is from The Urban Directory.

      You have got it right. Be on the sidelines and enjoy the passing shows. That is what I do but, I also have the advantage of having a geek for a resident son who helps me with all modern gadgetry, whenever my first choice, my daughter in love is unable to solve the problem.

      1. oh yes. I like that! geezelle! has a little naughty French sound to it! LOL.
        don’t mind me. the heat is getting to me. it’s like a sauna out there.

  3. Unless there is a fundamental change in the attitudes of younger folk social media will grow like runaway cancer IMHO. It will only be slowed down by a realization that interpersonal communication is best handled face to face with civility and respect. The only thing likely to change is the platforms popular in social media. One can only wonder what the next Mark Zuckerberg is contemplating in his/her head. Perhaps it is time for a generational change in the fundamental ways in which our lives are conducted.

    1. I don’t share your pessimism, Chuck. “Interpersonal communication” is not in decline. It’s alive and kicking. The youngsters in my vicinity run both social media and face to face hand in hand, alongside each other – not to the exclusion of each other.

      Surprises me that you, of all people, are so down in the mouth about the younger generation. If anything I think they communicate more than we did. My god, don’t I remember the time when, after school, I had to ask my parents for permission (yes, PERMISSION) to meet up with friends in the afternoon; permission to use the phone (obviously, landline at the time) to jabber with a friend you’d only just said goodbye to at the school gate but lived a good thirty minutes away as the crow flies.

      As humans we are programmed to be social – not least as witnessed in blogland. It just, or so it appears, that there are so many more outlets to communicate these days. But, yes, and maybe chiming in with you, I do sometimes wonder (and regret) that a lot of people (by no means all) are so “wired” they don’t hear bird song on their way to work; they don’t notice the everyday noises that come with being part of the hustle and bustle of mankind.

      But, trust me, nothing is lost, Chuck. Maybe, a lot gained. Actually, strike that last sentence because I myself find the internet and its lure an occasionally unwelcome distraction.


      1. I can only suggest things are different where you are U – my experience is the youth exist with a face glued typically to a smartphone screen. However, if that works out for them I have no problems – it is their world – as they inherit it – and they will run it and live as they see fit regardless what white haired old fools like me think. I do, however, appreciate SM for what it can do – I would not know either you or Ramana without it. It definitely serves a purpose I applaud.

    2. Surely, it is up to us. My cousin who has been on a caregiver role for the past 30 years finally was able to travel out of his hometown to meet up with his children and grand children settled overseas. He also used the opportunity to visit many other friends and relatives overseas. Having returned to India ten days ago, he decided that it was time to visit me and another mutual cousin who lives 150 kms away from where I live. We drove to meet him and returned the same day. We also visited another relative on the way back. We were tired but happy that we were able to meet face to face and reaffirm the old ties. He and I could have easily done it on skype or whatsapp! All the players in these meetings were and continue to bask in the joy that the visits generated.

  4. When I think back to the “chat system” or IRC and similar lettering – it has certainly moved on a pace…the old IRC stuff were mainly the geeks, and some of us who found ourselves within it…I guess those same geeks are still out there on the sidelines with Ubuntu and Linix and whatever else.
    I don’t think I really care, if something new comes along, I will just go with the flow…
    As it is – sometime next week, my Net system to the house is going 21C – fibre optics is being rolled out in NZ, and my street is set up for it… I took the chance to have it because it’s free to have, my landlord approves (of course he would adds value to his investment) & it won’t cost me much more monthly…

  5. I think the big question about social media in the future is, will it be just as popular as now or will people have lost interest in it and gone back to old-fashioned face-to-face meetings? It’s impossible to predict. Whatever the answer, I probably won’t be around to find out.

  6. Trends is social media are also like trends in fashion.. similar trends return in every generation..
    So our generation started with 1-on-1 chats and moved on to facebook and twitter but os moving back to snapchat and whatsapp for 1-to-1 chats, while we maintain a social persona

    Same way, i expect that in 20 yrs, we will have FB or insta or some such public social profiles for ourselves while majority of our communication will be via private 1 on 1 or small group chats..
    Yeah the medium might change from text and pic to videos.. may be drone captured selfies or audio calls from iwatch type wearables

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