Social Media In 25 Or 30 Years?

Kiev, Ukraine – October 17, 2012 – A logotype collection of well-known social media brand’s printed on paper. Include Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Google Plus, Instagram, Vimeo, Flickr, Myspace, Tumblr, Livejournal, Foursquare and more other logos.

This topic from Shackman for this week’s 2 on 1 weekly Friday post is a googly if you are a cricket nut or a curve ball if you are a baseball nut.

For the past four days, I have been scratching my head to think through this topic to make a sensible post and I must confess that I am no nearer to coming to that goal now than I was when I started.

I am not an Oracle. I am not an astrologer. Nor am I one of those pundits of Management who keep coming up with predictions about everything from the volume or value of a product’s sales figures for the next few years or who predict how the stock market will behave in the same period. I am just an ordinary old geezer content to use whatever social media keeps me informed about my contacts without worrying too much about its future.

Having been a professional manager however, and also one who strongly believes in the theory of cycles, I can hazard a guess about most of these sites’ future. Almost all of them are near the top of the Sigmoid curve now, and unless they keep reinventing themselves just before they reach full maturity, there is bound to be major shakeouts with the bigger sites creating additional features incorporating features of the competition that will allow them to grow while hastening the decline of the less innovative ones.

I expect that in the next 25 or 30 years, most of the sites would have disappeared leaving just a handful to oblige increasingly discerning clientele. Exist however, they will, though the equipment that will be used will be far different from those used now like the computer, smart phone, or tablets. Most likely, they will be somethings like the already available Smart Watches, and in concept things like the Cicret Bracelet. They may be even completely different to such gadgets. That is the exciting and also disturbing aspect of technology today.

Please do go over to Shackman’s blog to see what he has to say about this very intriguing future.